November 2, 2009

Armenia and Turkey signed an agreement in Zurich last month which is supposed to lead to the opening of the border between these countries. The border has been closed since 1993 at a time when Armenia and Azerbaijan were involved in intense fighting over Nogorno-Karabakh (a territory awarded to Azerbaijan by the Soviets in 1922 though mainly populated by Armenians.) Armenia won the battle. Then Nogorno-Karabakh declared its independence. Today only Armenia recognizes the sovereignty of Nogorno-Karabakh. Turkey and Azerbaijan are Muslim allies and Turkey closed its border in support of Azerbaijan. (Because the US does not recognize Nogorno-Karabakh, as Peace Corps volunteers, we are not allowed to go there.)

Gyumri is very close to the Turkish border. From any high spot we can see Turkey to the west. The border is currently patrolled by Russian troops who have a large base in Gyumri. (Closing the base will have an economic impact on Gyumri.) There is a major road linking Gyumri and Turkey which has not been maintained for years, and there is a railroad line, also not maintained. So if the border is opened the immediate impact will be slight. Currently in order to enter Turkey, we have to go north to Georgia and southwest into Turkey.

I have asked many people about how they feel about the border opening. 95% of the people in the Gyumri area are opposed to it for all the following reasons:

My host family is very upset. Their feeling is that what the Muslim Turks did to the Christian Armenians (from 1915-1917 1.5 million Armenians were massacred) must be recognized by the Turks. The agreement does not call for an apology. (I cannot imagine what the world would be like if Germany did not apologize for the Holocaust.) When the Turks drove the Armenians out of Turkey they also destroyed most of their churches and graves. I’ve met a few Armenians who have gone on pilgrimages to these areas, most notably Ani. I can also tell that my host family is afraid of the unknown.

One woman is concerned that Turkish men will enter the country and “steal” the young girls, which seems highly unlikely given the family-centered structure here. She does not like Turkish men, though she doesn’t know any.

One NGO (non-profit) working in human trafficking thinks that the border opening will increase the trafficking, and that it will be more difficult to control this activity. Currently most girls involved in trafficking end up in Turkey or the UAE.

There have been some protests in Yerevan about this agreement. But it appears that the consensus there is that this is a good thing. In all the rural areas though, after talking to volunteers, the consensus seems to be that it is a bad thing.

The nearest city across the border from Gyumri is Kars. I asked about the potential for trade with that area. The woman I was talking to told me that the area bordering Armenia is largely Kurdish and for that reason the Turkish government has largely ignored it. She told me that this area is even more depressed than where I am now.

A few people who own shops and go to Istanbul, Turkey to buy goods for their shops are excited because it will significantly cut down on their expenses. Armenian people pay a premium for their “Made in Turkey” products because of transportation costs which Georgians are able to exact given the closed border. These include clothing, shoes, curtains/drapes, cloth and inexpensive plastic household items. You can buy better quality for less money at Wal-Mart in the States. (Interestingly, there is a shoe manufacturer in Gyumri who makes high quality shoes for the German market, though you cannot buy them here.)

I’ve read several reports mentioning that the Yerevan oligarchy who control imports into the country have been very opposed to this agreement. Considering the corruption and control that they have of politicians (through financing campaigns and bribes) I’m surprised that the agreement was signed.

One of Armenia’s most important trading partners is Iran, which borders on the south. Iran supplies gas to Armenia, though the Russian owners (oligarchs again), restricted the dimension of the pipeline to ensure that only enough gas gets in to supply Armenia, and not enough so that they could sell any excess to Georgia. Russia and Georgia have major issues. Iran also supplies significant food products, mostly fruits and vegetables.

I have heard from the shop-owners buying in Turkey and from people who have traveled there, that Turks they talk to on the streets are positive about the border opening. Their concern with apologizing is that the country might then have to pay reparations, and that they were not personally involved; it happened 90 years ago. (Turkey is trying to become a member of the European Union. And one of their conditions for membership is that they apologize. Many European countries had to apologize for their role in the Holocaust, so this makes sense to them. The US Congress, led by the US Armenian diaspora, has condemned Turkey for the genocide, but our presidents have refused to do so, including Obama, because Turkey is a major military ally.)

Personally I think the border opening will benefit both countries significantly, though not in the near-term as there is a lot of animosity between the two populations. Also the infrastructure to allow easy trade is not in place. Armenia has changed from a primarily industrial country to a primarily agricultural one and I think that the closed borders, lack of access to raw goods and energy supplies, and lack of access to markets have been the primary reasons.

The agreement has to be ratified by both countries’ parliaments, and that has not happened. The talk was that the border would open in two months. I’m not holding my breath.